# Usage-billed AI wins, subscription software loses

By @binji_x on X · https://f.xyz/t/fd1e3b80-9dc9-42a8-8013-bed8d6d56466

> As AI is paid for by how much you use it, like electricity, money flows to the companies that supply compute and power and away from subscription software.

**Result:** If held over the last 3 months (Jul 28, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026): −4.3%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +3.9%, Chip stocks −0.6%.

## What it holds

- **Anthropic and its backers** (25%, +4.0% over 3 months): ANTH (Anthropic) +4.9%, AMZN (Amazon) +8.0%, GOOGL (Alphabet) −1.9%
- **Chips and servers** (30%, +3.1% over 3 months): NVDA (Nvidia) +11.0%, AVGO (Broadcom) −13.4%, TSM (TSMC) +7.4%, MU (Micron) +2.8%, DELL (Dell) +10.7%
- **Rented GPU clouds** (15%, −16.3% over 3 months): CRWV (CoreWeave) −18.9%, NBIS (Nebius) −12.6%
- **Power for data centers** (10%, −9.6% over 3 months): VST (Vistra) −2.4%, GEV (GE Vernova) −16.7%
- **Subscription software** (20%, −18.8% over 3 months): against IGV (Software ETF) −6.0%, against NOW (ServiceNow) −48.2%, against ZM (Zoom) −6.5%

## The plan behind it

The take says AI is now sold by the unit, like power, not as an app you subscribe to. So the portfolio goes long the companies that sell the raw ingredients: Anthropic itself, its cloud backers, chips, rented GPU clouds, and electricity. It shorts subscription software, which could lose budget and customers to AI tools billed by usage. Most of the money sits on the compute side because that is where the usage spike pays off first.

> Anthropic revenue:
> 
> 2024: $386 million
> 2025: $4.6 billion
> First half of 2026: $16.3 billion
> 
> 83% of Anthropic’s revenue in 2025 came from usage-based billing, NOT subscriptions.
> 
> The business model is now less like an app, and more like electricity.
> — @binji_x on X: https://x.com/binji_x/status/2114708213522125139

**What would prove it wrong:** Anthropic's usage-based revenue growth slows sharply, or subscription software keeps growing while compute stocks fall.

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