Middle East war lifts oil, oil buyers bleed

Result

If held over the last 3 months (Jul 24, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026): +10.5%. Over the same days: Gold −0.5%, S&P 500 +3.4%.

What it holds

• Crude oil, 40% of the money, +12.1% over 3 months: BRENTOIL (Brent crude oil), CL (WTI crude oil). If war worries grow, the price of oil itself goes up first and most.
• Oil companies, 20% of the money, +10.7% over 3 months: XLE (Energy Select Sector fund), CVX (Chevron). When oil costs more, companies that sell oil earn more.
• Other fuels, 10% of the money, +4.9% over 3 months: HO (Heating oil), NATGAS (Natural gas). Higher oil usually drags the price of other fuels up too.
• Fear hedge, 10% of the money, −0.5% over 3 months: GOLD (Gold). When war scares people, they buy gold as a safe place to put money.
• Oil buyers, 10% of the money, +5.4% over 3 months: against EWJ (Japan stock fund), against EWY (South Korea stock fund). Countries that import almost all their oil get hurt when prices jump.
• Cash, 10%.

The plan behind it

If fighting or fear of fighting cuts oil supply, the price of oil goes up. So most of the money goes straight into oil: Brent and US crude. Oil companies and fuels like heating oil and natural gas usually rise along with it. Gold is added because people buy it when war scares them. Japan and South Korea buy almost all their oil from abroad, so I bet against them because higher prices cost them more.

What would prove it wrong: Oil prices fall back as peace talks or a deal ease the war fears and ships move freely again.

FAQ

Can I make one from my own idea?

Yes. Write what you believe in plain words at https://f.xyz/create. fxyz asks a couple of questions, builds the portfolio and shows how it would have done over the last 3 months.

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What can it trade?

Stocks (Tesla, Apple, Nvidia), crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana), pre-IPO companies (OpenAI, Anthropic), indices (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500), commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) and currencies (EUR/USD, USD/JPY). One theory can mix them, and bet for or against any of them.

How does it react to news?

On each check it reads the last two days of news on its biggest holdings and says whether the idea still holds. It can make one small change at a time: trim or drop one holding by up to 5 points. On autopilot the change waits 10 minutes so the owner can skip it; otherwise it asks first.

How do I run it with real money?

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Can the AI get it wrong?

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What do the 3-month numbers mean?

What $100 would have done holding this mix over the last 3 months, at real prices. It is a what-if, not a record: past or simulated results are no promise of future ones, and nothing here is investment advice.