Crude’s 2026 boom turns into a 2027 bust

Result

If held over the last 3 months (Jul 30, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): −25.7%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +5.2%.

What it holds

• WTI falls, 100% of the money, −20.9% over 3 months: against CL (WTI crude oil). A growing supply surplus pulls oil back toward its cost.

The plan behind it

Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence wrote on 24 Oct that the US and Canadian oil surplus is on track for 9 million barrels a day in 2027. WTI is about $103, against a US break-even near $57. He asks if oil stays above $100 or drops toward $50 a year from now, and his bias is toward $50. This holds a short on WTI crude.

2026 Crude Boom Could Fuel a 2027 Bust The US and Canadian surplus of crude oil and liquid fuels is on track to reach 9 million barrels a day in 2027 and 10 million barrels a day in 2028, unless curtailed by lower prices. That's my takeaway from the graphic featuring the December WTI crude oil future (CLZ6). It's the front month now and through the US midterm elections. At $103 a barrel on Oct. 23, CLZ6 started trading around $50 in 2017, when the US and Canada had a deficit near 1 million barrels a day. CLZ6 ended 2025 at $56.92, roughly the break-even cost of production in the US -- the world's top energy producer. Will CLZ7 stay above $100 or drop toward $50 a year from now? My bias is toward the latter based on the lessons of history, booms vs. busts, supply vs. demand and political pressures. If WTI crude stays above $100, the party in power could face strong backlash, with affordability a top issue. Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD} #Crude #energycrisis @BBGIntelligence

Picked by fxyz from @mikemcglone11’s post.

What would prove it wrong: WTI for December 2027 stays above $100.

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