@BurggrabenH on X
No copper supercycle
China is too weak and Europe cannot afford its Green Deal, so the copper supercycle does not happen.
Result
If held over the last 3 months (Jul 30, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): −3.1%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +5.2%.
What it holds
- Copper falls, 100% of the money, −4.5% over 3 months: against COPPER (Copper). Weak China and a retreat from green policy cut copper demand.
The plan behind it
Alexander Stahel wrote on 17 Oct that he does not buy the copper supercycle. China is too weak to sustain it, and Europe’s Green Deal is too costly; Germany and France just dropped the combustion engine ban. This holds a short on copper.
I’ve explained for months (below) why I don’t buy the copper supercycle. China is structurally too weak to sustain it, while Europe’s Green Deal will collide with a simple reality: nobody can afford it. Today, Merz said: “We reached an agreement bw Germany and France on future policy toward the automotive industry. With this, the combustion engine ban is history.” It’s only the beginning. Book it: the “Green Deal” — never green, always an exercise in energy illiteracy — is heading for the scrapheap. Good thing…
Picked by fxyz from @BurggrabenH’s post.
What would prove it wrong: China demand recovers and copper makes new highs.
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