@alc2022 on X
Biology is messy: tools win, Moderna loses
Splicing makes biology far more complex than the market prices in, so companies that help read it should beat Moderna, which treats a gene like a simple recipe.
Result
If held over the last 3 months: +0.0%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +3.9%.
What it holds
- Tools to read biology, 45% of the money: TWST (Twist Bioscience). If gene reading gets more complex, labs buy more tools to study it.
- Simple-recipe mRNA, 40% of the money: against MRNA (Moderna). Moderna's bet leans on a clean gene-to-message story that may be too neat.
- Cash, 15%.
The plan behind it
QSI isn't on the list, so I used Twist Bioscience as the closest stand-in. It sells the building blocks researchers use to explore how genes really work. If splicing becomes a big deal, labs will need more of these tools. The short is Moderna, which you named. Its whole business treats one gene as one clean message. Pairing a long with a short means you win if biotech tools beat simple mRNA, even when the whole market moves. I kept some cash because the long is only a rough match for QSI.
The genome is a suggestion primarily because of splicing Different mRNA isoforms emerge from the same gene because of this mechanism Reading into splicing will be a key pillar of the bio/acc revolution Thinking of $QSI here, obviously
What would prove it wrong: Moderna rises strongly on good trial results while Twist falls, which would show the market doesn't care about biology's hidden complexity.
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