Chips outrun the S&P, the index pays for it

Result

If held over the last 3 months (Jul 30, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): +10.2%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +5.3%, Chip stocks +10.9%.

What it holds

• Chip designers, 32% of the money, +18.5% over 3 months: NVDA (Nvidia), AVGO (Broadcom), AMD, MRVL (Marvell). The companies that design AI chips get the biggest share of AI spending.
• Chip factory and memory, 23% of the money, +22.9% over 3 months: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor), MU (Micron). Someone has to build the chips and the memory that goes with them.
• Chip basket, 14% of the money, +10.9% over 3 months: SMH (VanEck Semiconductor fund). A broad chip basket catches winners I did not pick.
• Bet against the market, 23% of the money, −5.3% over 3 months: against SP500 (S&P 500). Shorting the S&P 500 turns this into a bet on chips beating the market.
• Cash, 10%.

The plan behind it

The take is about chips doing better than the whole market, not just going up. So the portfolio buys the main AI chip companies: the designers, the factory, the memory maker and a chip basket. Then it bets against the S&P 500 index. If the whole market rises but chips rise more, the long side wins by more than the short side loses. If the market falls, chips would need to fall less for you to come out ahead. Some cash is kept aside in case chips swing wildly.

What would prove it wrong: Chips fall behind the S&P 500 for a few months in a row, for example because big companies cut their AI spending.

FAQ

Can I make one from my own idea?

Yes. Write what you believe in plain words at https://f.xyz/create. fxyz asks a couple of questions, builds the portfolio and shows how it would have done over the last 3 months.

Can I turn a post on X into a theory?

Yes. Reply to the post and tag @fxyzai. It tests the view in the post and replies with the 3-month result and a link.

What can it trade?

Stocks (Tesla, Apple, Nvidia), crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana), pre-IPO companies (OpenAI, Anthropic), indices (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500), commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) and currencies (EUR/USD, USD/JPY). One theory can mix them, and bet for or against any of them.

How does it react to news?

On each check it reads the last two days of news on its biggest holdings and says whether the idea still holds. It can make one small change at a time: trim or drop one holding by up to 5 points. On autopilot the change waits 10 minutes so the owner can skip it; otherwise it asks first.

How do I run it with real money?

For real money, tap Make it mine, open your copy and choose Use real money, with an exchange connected: Hyperliquid, Lighter, Lighter (Robinhood), Backpack, Pacifica or Binance. The money stays in your own account there. fxyz can place trades, but it can never withdraw.

Can the AI get it wrong?

Yes. fxyz's AI turns the idea into holdings, and it can get that wrong: add a coin or stock that doesn't fit, or miss one that does. Check the holdings before you put money in. In your own copy, ask its chat to add or drop any of them.

What do the 3-month numbers mean?

What $100 would have done holding this mix over the last 3 months, at real prices. It is a what-if, not a record: past or simulated results are no promise of future ones, and nothing here is investment advice.