Energy stocks are in a multi-year bull market

Result

If held over the last 3 months (Jul 30, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): +9.7%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +5.1%.

What it holds

• Energy producers, 85% of the money, +13.8% over 3 months: XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE)), CVX (Chevron). At $84 oil for 2027, producers earn a lot of free cash.
• Cash, 15%.

The plan behind it

Eric Nuttall runs energy funds. On 14 Oct he said his funds were putting cash back to work. The election risk is mostly gone, the 2027 WTI oil strip is $84, and some energy stocks are cheaper than on 1 January even after big gains. His funds hold Canadian producers, which do not trade here. XLE (the US energy sector fund) and Chevron stand in for them: 70% XLE, 30% Chevron, with 15% kept in cash.

We have in our energy strategies for the past ~2 months been defensively positioned. YTD returns have been solid and we feared bad energy policy from the WH (diesel export ban, etc.) ahead of the US mid-terms. With only 20 days to go to the election, we think that risk has been largely eliminated. The 2027 WTI strip is $84 offering eye-watering free cashflow yields for some, the situation in the Middle East continues to worsen with no end in sight, and for the first time in a decade we have a Canadian Government that is supportive of the energy sector. Despite some stocks appreciating by 70%+ YTD and making all-time highs, they are in some cases cheaper today than they were on January 1st. Given this, we have been deploying some of our cash, and continue to believe that we remain in a multi-year bull market for energy stocks.

Picked by fxyz from @ericnuttall’s post.

What would prove it wrong: The 2027 WTI oil strip falls below $70.

FAQ

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Stocks (Tesla, Apple, Nvidia), crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana), pre-IPO companies (OpenAI, Anthropic), indices (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500), commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) and currencies (EUR/USD, USD/JPY). One theory can mix them, and bet for or against any of them.

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On each check it reads the last two days of news on its biggest holdings and says whether the idea still holds. It can make one small change at a time: trim or drop one holding by up to 5 points. On autopilot the change waits 10 minutes so the owner can skip it; otherwise it asks first.

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What do the 3-month numbers mean?

What $100 would have done holding this mix over the last 3 months, at real prices. It is a what-if, not a record: past or simulated results are no promise of future ones, and nothing here is investment advice.