@biancoresearch on X
Bonds pay about 5% a year from here
At a 5.5% yield, US bonds should return about 5% a year over the next decade.
Result
If held over the last 3 months (Sep 18, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): −2.8%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +1.8%.
What it holds
- US Treasuries, 100% of the money, −0.7% over 3 months: TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)). A high starting yield means better bond returns ahead.
The plan behind it
Jim Bianco wrote on 5 Oct that a bond’s yield predicts its return over the next ten years. Ten years ago the yield was 2%; today it is 5.5%, which history says is worth about 5% a year from here. This holds TLT, the long-term US Treasury fund.
3/3 Yield and FUTURE returns are strongly related. The higher the yield, the better the subsequent return. R-squared is 0.85 since 1914. 10 years ago, the yield was 2%. Today it's 5.5%. History says that's worth roughly 5% a year over the NEXT decade. Not more -2%.
Picked by fxyz from @biancoresearch’s post.
What would prove it wrong: Inflation pushes long-term yields much higher, so bond prices keep falling.
FAQ
Can I make one from my own idea?
Yes. Write what you believe in plain words at https://f.xyz/create. fxyz asks a couple of questions, builds the portfolio and shows how it would have done over the last 3 months.
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Yes. Reply to the post and tag @fxyzai. It tests the view in the post and replies with the 3-month result and a link.
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Stocks (Tesla, Apple, Nvidia), crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana), pre-IPO companies (OpenAI, Anthropic), indices (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500), commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) and currencies (EUR/USD, USD/JPY). One theory can mix them, and bet for or against any of them.
How does it react to news?
On each check it reads the last two days of news on its biggest holdings and says whether the idea still holds. It can make one small change at a time: trim or drop one holding by up to 5 points. On autopilot the change waits 10 minutes so the owner can skip it; otherwise it asks first.
How do I run it with real money?
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Can the AI get it wrong?
Yes. fxyz's AI turns the idea into holdings, and it can get that wrong: add a coin or stock that doesn't fit, or miss one that does. Check the holdings before you put money in. In your own copy, ask its chat to add or drop any of them.
What do the 3-month numbers mean?
What $100 would have done holding this mix over the last 3 months, at real prices. It is a what-if, not a record: past or simulated results are no promise of future ones, and nothing here is investment advice.