fxyz
Lula wins again, Brazil stocks keep sinking
Brazilian stocks will keep falling because Lula won a fourth term and investors fear more government spending and a weaker real.
Result
If held over the last 3 months (Jul 30, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): +4.9%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +5.1%, Gold −1.2%.
What it holds
- Short Brazil's market, 60% of the money, +4.9% over 3 months: against EWZ (iShares MSCI Brazil ETF). Fear about Lula's spending pushes Brazilian stocks and the real down together.
- Short Brazil-heavy business, 20% of the money, +12.7% over 3 months: against MELI (MercadoLibre). A weaker real and a slower Brazil hurt companies that make much of their money there.
- Cash, 20%.
The idea
Investors had bet on a Bolsonaro win, and now they are pulling money out of Brazil. The biggest short is EWZ, a fund of Brazil's largest companies priced in dollars, so it falls when Brazilian stocks drop and again when the real drops. MercadoLibre is a smaller short because much of its money comes from Brazil, and a weaker real shrinks those earnings in dollars. Some cash is kept aside because the first drop was huge and a quick bounce could happen before the slide goes on.
What would prove it wrong: The real and EWZ get back their post-election losses because Lula promises believable spending limits.
FAQ
Can I make one from my own idea?
Yes. Write what you believe in plain words at https://f.xyz/create. fxyz asks a couple of questions, builds the portfolio and shows how it would have done over the last 3 months.
Can I turn a post on X into a theory?
Yes. Reply to the post and tag @fxyzai. It tests the view in the post and replies with the 3-month result and a link.
What can it trade?
Stocks (Tesla, Apple, Nvidia), crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana), pre-IPO companies (OpenAI, Anthropic), indices (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500), commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) and currencies (EUR/USD, USD/JPY). One theory can mix them, and bet for or against any of them.
How does it react to news?
On each check it reads the last two days of news on its biggest holdings and says whether the idea still holds. It can make one small change at a time: trim or drop one holding by up to 5 points. On autopilot the change waits 10 minutes so the owner can skip it; otherwise it asks first.
How do I run it with real money?
For real money, tap Make it mine, open your copy and choose Use real money, with an exchange connected: Hyperliquid, Lighter, Lighter (Robinhood), Backpack, Pacifica or Binance. The money stays in your own account there. fxyz can place trades, but it can never withdraw.
Can the AI get it wrong?
Yes. fxyz's AI turns the idea into holdings, and it can get that wrong: add a coin or stock that doesn't fit, or miss one that does. Check the holdings before you put money in. In your own copy, ask its chat to add or drop any of them.
What do the 3-month numbers mean?
What $100 would have done holding this mix over the last 3 months, at real prices. It is a what-if, not a record: past or simulated results are no promise of future ones, and nothing here is investment advice.