# China’s AI money goes to platforms, not model labs

By @Afinetheorem on X · https://f.xyz/t/3603e4a9-ea60-4ef2-b615-1dd129b2e1f4

> Chinese open-source AI labs struggle to make money; platforms with products around the models win.

**Result:** If held over the last 3 months (Jul 31, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026): +4.2%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +3.7%.

## What it holds

- **Platforms win** (50%, −6.4% over 3 months): BABA (Alibaba) −15.4%, TCNT (Tencent) −9.0%, XIAOMI (Xiaomi) +5.5%
- **Model labs lose** (50%, +29.6% over 3 months): against ZHIPU (Zhipu AI) +39.1%, against MINIMAX (MiniMax) +20.0%

## The plan behind it

Kevin Bryan wrote on 23 Oct that Chinese open-source model makers struggle to make money unless they own products around the model, as Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi and Huawei do. He doubts Kimi, Zhipu and MiniMax. This holds Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi long and Zhipu and MiniMax short; each side is half.

> The problem for the Chinese models: how do you make money w/ open source if you don't have market power in complements a la Ali/Tencent/Xiaomi/Huawei? Not impossible, and Deepseek has unique advantages, but Kimi/Zhipu/Minimax?
> — @Afinetheorem on X: https://x.com/Afinetheorem/status/2113626191550980532

Picked by fxyz from @Afinetheorem’s post.

**What would prove it wrong:** Zhipu and MiniMax grow revenue fast from their own models.

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