Gold falls to $3,400–3,800

Result

If held over the last 3 months (Jul 30, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): +1.7%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +5.2%, Gold −1.3%.

What it holds

• Gold falls, 100% of the money, +1.3% over 3 months: against GOLD (Gold). High real yields and a strong dollar weigh on gold.

The plan behind it

Ricky Ho wrote on 2 Oct that he is bearish on gold. If US yields stay high and the dollar stays strong, gold’s monetary premium can unwind hard. His first downside range is $3,400–3,800. This holds a short on gold.

We made money in Indonesia. Now we’re getting out again. A quick recap for new followers. I turned bearish on Indonesian equities before the big selloff, then bought selectively when valuations finally became attractive. We owned AMMN, ASII, AADI and MIKA. AMMN returned close to +55%. AADI returned around +25%. MIKA returned around +5%. ASII was roughly flat. We have now closed all of them. Why? Because the macro setup has changed again, and this time it is turning hostile very quickly. Higher US yields. Stronger USD. Higher oil. That combination is toxic for Indonesia. Higher US yields raise the global hurdle rate and make Indonesian assets less attractive relative to dollar assets. A stronger USD pressures the rupiah. A weaker rupiah raises imported inflation. Higher oil worsens the current account, increases subsidy pressure and raises costs across the economy. Eventually, something has to adjust. And usually that means higher domestic rates, weaker growth, lower multiples, or some combination of all three. For commodities, the setup is also getting ugly. We think many non-oil commodities face pressure from higher real yields, tighter liquidity and weaker marginal demand, while oil itself can keep going higher because the market is still underestimating how long the current supply shock can last. That creates a brutal margin setup for miners: commodity revenue down, diesel and energy costs up. We are also bearish on gold and gold equities. If US yields stay high and the dollar remains strong, gold’s monetary premium can unwind hard, while gold miners get hit twice by a lower gold price and higher energy costs. Our downside range for gold remains around US$3,400-3,800 first. Banks do not look attractive either. NIM is already under pressure, funding costs are rising and if BI is eventually forced to tighten more aggressively, the real problem may show up with a lag through higher NPLs, weaker loan growth and multiple compression. The consumer side worries me even more. Indonesia can still print decent headline GDP growth while the middle class continues to get squeezed. If subsidized fuel eventually has to be adjusted because oil stays high, the pressure will flow directly into transportation, food, inflation and discretionary spending. Then there is MSCI. I do not think Indonesia gets normalized quickly. Trust takes years to build and seconds to lose. The market still has to prove that free float is real, liquidity is genuine and price discovery is credible. So putting everything together: higher global discount rates stronger USD higher oil potentially higher BI rates weaker consumer purchasing power banking asset-quality risk commodity margin pressure and unresolved market-structure issues That is not a setup where I want to take large Indonesia risk. Meanwhile, we remain very bullish on AI. Not “Indonesia AI plays.” The real thing: GPUs. HBM. Foundries. Networking. Power. Hyperscalers. AI spending is already huge, but penetration into the global economy is still early. We are still building the infrastructure. The real monetization phase has barely started. So for now, our positioning is simple: Short Indonesia risk. Long oil. Bearish gold. Long real AI. No loyalty to markets. No loyalty to narratives. Only loyalty to risk-adjusted returns.

Picked by fxyz from @rickyho_1989’s post.

What would prove it wrong: US yields fall and the dollar weakens, and gold makes new highs.

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