US natural gas falls back to $2

Result

If held over the last 3 months (Jul 30, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): +1.1%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +5.2%.

What it holds

• Gas falls, 100% of the money, −12.5% over 3 months: against NATGAS (US natural gas). Supply and high prices push gas back down.

The plan behind it

Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence wrote on 25 Oct that February gas is about $3.20, and below $3.69 it marks a down year. He leans toward a high-price cure cycle, and says US gas may revisit $2 support. This holds a short on US natural gas.

US Gas Surge-Then-Purge Pattern May Guide Energy If the February US natural gas future (NGG27), at about $3.20 per million British thermal units on Oct. 23, stays below $3.69, it will mark a down year in 2026 for the front gas future, with pump-then-dump implications for crude oil and energy. Juxtaposed with falling gas are WTI crude oil's roughly 80% gain and an almost 200% surge in the Bloomberg Heating Oil Subindex Total Return (diesel), the biggest since the index began in 1987. Will natural gas catch up to crude and diesel, or will a typical high-price cure cycle prevail? My bias leans toward the latter. In addition to normal price-elasticity forces and the accelerating replacement of fossil fuels by technology, my graphic shows the US crude and liquid-fuels surplus approaching 5 million barrels a day in 2027. US gas may revisit $2 support, while crude oil and diesel risk similar declines. Full report on the Bloomberg here: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/t… {BI COMD} #naturalgas #diesel #energy @BBGIntelligence

Picked by fxyz from @mikemcglone11’s post.

What would prove it wrong: February 2027 natural gas rises above $3.69.

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