# Brent is too high, the war premium fades

By @robin_j_brooks on X · https://f.xyz/t/0c6cbcbf-29f7-443d-b335-a5c1633a87dc

> Brent near $117 holds a $25 war risk premium, and that premium does not last long.

**Result:** If held over the last 3 months (Jul 30, 2026 – Oct 29, 2026): −31.9%. Over the same days: S&P 500 +5.2%.

## What it holds

- **Brent falls** (100%, −27.1% over 3 months): against BRENTOIL (Brent crude oil) −27.1%

## The plan behind it

Robin Brooks wrote on 26 Oct that Brent at $117 is too high. He puts the risk premium in front-month Brent at about $25, and says that, as earlier in 2026 showed, it does not last long. This holds a short on Brent crude.

> I've argued that Brent at $117 is too high. It's good to see this fall a bit today, even if we're still at extreme levels. I put the risk premium priced into front-month Brent at $25 currently and - as we learned earlier in 2026 - that doesn't last long...
> — @robin_j_brooks on X: https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/2114617581436809396

Picked by fxyz from @robin_j_brooks’s post.

**What would prove it wrong:** Brent makes new highs above $117 and stays there.

## FAQ

### Can I make one from my own idea?

Yes. Write what you believe in plain words at https://f.xyz/create. fxyz asks a couple of questions, builds the portfolio and shows how it would have done over the last 3 months.

### Can I turn a post on X into a theory?

Yes. Reply to the post and tag @fxyzai. It tests the view in the post and replies with the 3-month result and a link.

### What can it trade?

Stocks (Tesla, Apple, Nvidia), crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana), pre-IPO companies (OpenAI, Anthropic), indices (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500), commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) and currencies (EUR/USD, USD/JPY). One theory can mix them, and bet for or against any of them.

### How does it react to news?

On each check it reads the last two days of news on its biggest holdings and says whether the idea still holds. It can make one small change at a time: trim or drop one holding by up to 5 points. On autopilot the change waits 10 minutes so the owner can skip it; otherwise it asks first.

### How do I run it with real money?

For real money, tap Make it mine, open your copy and choose Use real money, with an exchange connected: Hyperliquid, Lighter, Lighter (Robinhood), Backpack, Pacifica or Binance. The money stays in your own account there. fxyz can place trades, but it can never withdraw.

### Can the AI get it wrong?

Yes. fxyz's AI turns the idea into holdings, and it can get that wrong: add a coin or stock that doesn't fit, or miss one that does. Check the holdings before you put money in. In your own copy, ask its chat to add or drop any of them.

### What do the 3-month numbers mean?

What $100 would have done holding this mix over the last 3 months, at real prices. It is a what-if, not a record: past or simulated results are no promise of future ones, and nothing here is investment advice.

Test your own idea: https://f.xyz/test