Picks and shovels win; AI model makers bleed

Result

If held over the last 3 months (Jul 14, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026): −2.0%. Over the same days: Chip stocks +1.0%, Nasdaq +4.9%.

What it holds

• GPU & Compute Kings, 45% of the money, +5.6% over 3 months: NVDA, AVGO, AMD. Dominant GPU designers capture the lion's share of AI infrastructure spend with pricing power intact.
• Semiconductor Supply Chain, 30% of the money, +1.9% over 3 months: TSM, MU, AMAT. Foundry and memory makers are essential infrastructure that every AI model company must pay.
• Pure-Play AI Model Short, 15% of the money, −32.6% over 3 months: against PLTR, against CRWV. Standalone AI model companies face commoditization pressure from open source and hyperscaler competition.
• Cash, 10%.

The plan behind it

The AI gold rush rewards those selling the picks and shovels — chips and compute — more reliably than those mining for model revenue. NVIDIA and AVGO dominate the compute supply chain with near-monopoly pricing power. AMD and TSMC supply the broader semiconductor stack that no model company can escape. Meanwhile pure-play AI model companies face rapidly falling inference costs, open-source competition, and hyperscaler in-house development that erodes their moats. Cash is held as a buffer against sector-wide volatility and rate sensitivity.

What would prove it wrong: NVIDIA gross margins fall below 60% for two consecutive quarters, or a pure-play AI model company achieves sustained >40% revenue growth with expanding margins, signaling the model layer has defensible economics.

FAQ

Can I make one from my own idea?

Yes. Write what you believe in plain words at https://f.xyz/create. fxyz asks a couple of questions, builds the portfolio and shows how it would have done over the last 3 months.

Can I turn a post on X into a theory?

Yes. Reply to the post and tag @fxyzai. It tests the view in the post and replies with the 3-month result and a link.

What can it trade?

Stocks (Tesla, Apple, Nvidia), crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana), pre-IPO companies (OpenAI, Anthropic), indices (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500), commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper) and currencies (EUR/USD, USD/JPY). One theory can mix them, and bet for or against any of them.

How does it react to news?

On each check it reads the last two days of news on its biggest holdings and says whether the idea still holds. It can make one small change at a time: trim or drop one holding by up to 5 points. On autopilot the change waits 10 minutes so the owner can skip it; otherwise it asks first.

How do I run it with real money?

For real money, tap Make it mine, open your copy and choose Use real money, with an exchange connected: Hyperliquid, Lighter, Lighter (Robinhood), Backpack, Pacifica or Binance. The money stays in your own account there. fxyz can place trades, but it can never withdraw.

Can the AI get it wrong?

Yes. fxyz's AI turns the idea into holdings, and it can get that wrong: add a coin or stock that doesn't fit, or miss one that does. Check the holdings before you put money in. In your own copy, ask its chat to add or drop any of them.

What do the 3-month numbers mean?

What $100 would have done holding this mix over the last 3 months, at real prices. It is a what-if, not a record: past or simulated results are no promise of future ones, and nothing here is investment advice.